Estimating demand for SDA is complex. It requires an understanding of which NDIS participants with SDA are looking for what sort of SDA (design and building type) in what locations matched against the available (and emerging) SDA supply.
The first step is to consider the regional SDA data published by the NDIS on their Data Downloads website (https://data.ndis.gov.au/data-downloads).
For example, if we set the percentage of NDIS participants with SDA against the expected 6% expected to receive SDA we see great variations between the regions.
This may represent:
Incomplete data as the Government-owned in-kind SDA is not fully included
Historical supply (and possibly oversupply) generated by closed institutions such as Kew Cottages in the Inner East Melbourne
Historical under servicing of people with disability in regional Victoria and in the less affluent parts of Melbourne .
Data is, therefore, the start of the conversation. Demand estimation today really requires working in partnership with the local community to get a line of sight on those with SDA in their NDIS plan who are likely to seek new housing.